Journal article
Climate Change Projections for the Australian Monsoon From CMIP6 Models
SY Narsey, JR Brown, RA Colman, F Delage, SB Power, AF Moise, H Zhang
Geophysical Research Letters | AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION | Published : 2020
DOI: 10.1029/2019GL086816
Abstract
Climate change projections for the Australian monsoon have been highly uncertain in previous generations of coupled climate models. The new Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) ensemble provides an opportunity to address the uncertainty in future projections for northern Australia. We find that the range in Australian monsoon projections from the available CMIP6 ensemble is substantially reduced compared to CMIP5, although models continue to disagree on the magnitude and direction of change. While previous CMIP5 studies identified warming in the western equatorial Pacific as important for Australian monsoon projections, here we show that the western Pacific is not strongly c..
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Funding Acknowledgements
We acknowledge constructive comments on earlier versions of this paper by Christine Chung and Luke Osburn. The research presented in this paper was jointly supported by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the Australian Government's National Environmental Science Program Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Coupled Modeling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP, the U.S. Department of Energy's Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. The CMIP data used in this study are freely available through the Earth System Grid Federation (https://esgf.nci.org.au/).CMAP data are freely available at https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.cmap.html and GPCP data at https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.gpcp.html Web site.